I realized a couple years ago that “conspiracy theories” are now a (or the) defining aspect of our politics. I saw this in the context of the upcoming presidential race, COVID, Russiagate, Qanon, RFK Jr., and the general mistrust and scorn that partisans now hold for their opponents.

And here we are.

It’s funny, I was also on a news fast back on January 6, 2021. I got a call from my uncle asking if I was watching what was going on. He explained to me the situation at the Capitol. My immediate reaction was to laugh it off as some overzealous but mostly harmless Trump fanatics. I was also immediately skeptical over the crowd’s ability to breach the building. I’ve been in many protests over the years, including the 2004 Republican Convention protests in NYC and the Bush inauguration protests in 2005. I’ve seen how experienced the police are at controlling crowds. It was very difficult to believe that the most powerful empire in history would allow some ruffians to invade the parliament building without a stand down order. And my suspicion was not that Trump gave that order. It’s very hard for me to believe that Trump would go for an all out coup knowing how much of the establishment was aligned against him. I thought it much more likely that the establishment saw this as a golden propaganda opportunity against Trump. And I am in no way a Trump supporter. I haven’t studied all the aspects of this event, but I stand by my initial suspicions. If you want to offer counter-evidence, I’m always open to hear it.

When you have a nation that is losing trust in all forms of official authority, what you are left with is various factions vying to explain what is going on. These alternative explanations may be called “conspiracy theories” by the existing order, which is indignant that their explanations are no longer accepted. Of course, the establishment itself has always traded in officially-sanctioned conspiracy theories, but you might just call that “official propaganda” because the term “conspiracy theory” in accepted usage has to come from a marginal source/perspective.

I received a text from my friend yesterday informing me of the Trump shooting. I stayed off media for the rest of the day, but around bedtime, I jumped back in and tried to digest what was going on. On Twitter, the conspiratorial speculation, evidence gathering, and analysis are all so predictable now. It was inevitable that we would hear conspiracy theories from the Democrat side on Trump staging his own shooting to gain sympathy and look like a hero. It’s a possibility that can’t be denied, but with the media and most establishment interests aligned against Trump, it’s hard to believe he could pull it off.

Theories about the “deep state” trying to take out Trump are more prevalent. The inexplicable incompetence of the secret service and police make it hard for many to believe this was a lone nut getting a few lucky shots off before being taken out. The proximity of the shooter and the fact that he was reportedly pointed out to authorities 3-4 minutes before the shooting are very troubling. See this video for an eyewitness account.

On top of that, the alleged shooter was observed acting suspiciously near the metal detectors at the entrance to the rally. This must have been minutes before he would have climbed a rooftop with a rifle. We have to assume that the authorities tasked with protecting a high-risk target like Trump would be in constant radio contact and would have either stopped the suspect in a timely manner or whisked Trump offstage moments after a threat was detected. Some people are arguing that it was plain old bumbling incompetence, but that is hard for me to swallow. Perhaps more evidence will come out making this a more believable conclusion.

Whatever your take on this fiasco, be careful to follow the evidence and historical precedent. Just because you are a Trump hater or a Trump lover shouldn’t color your analysis. Whatever the truth of the matter, this event will have some clear political outcomes:

  • Trump’s core supporters will be even more fired up and disdainful of the establishment

  • Trump’s religious base may see him as anointed by god (if they didn’t already) after missing death by an inch and coming up fighting

  • If elected, Trump will be energized to purge any elements that threatened his life

  • If an organized conspiracy was behind it, they may try again because this failed assassination only seems to have made him stronger

  • Biden will look like even more of a senile weakling in contrast to the bloody-eared, fist-pumping Trump.

  • An already chaotic election and country will become even more charged with tension and suspicion

We also have to wonder what the consequences of a successful assassination would have been. Trump has no clear successor, but his base wouldn’t disappear overnight if he was killed. There could have been small or large scale riots in the aftermath. People might want to look into whether there were any preparations for such riots in place on July 13. Perhaps after an initial flare-up of anger, his movement would die-down and lie dormant until another leader was able to galvanize it. A good portion of these people would be further alienated from the establishment (if that’s possible) and fully believe that it killed Trump. But if there is a “strategy of tension” going on, i.e. ruling class elements provoking us closer to chaos / civil war to further their power, this event could surely be seen as part of such a plan. And there is no doubt that “conspiracy theories” themselves and the polarized and passionate atmosphere around them would be utilized by such a devious elite. My only recommendation in the face of a force like this would be to resist their traps and keep your eye on the ball. Don’t be goaded into hate or fear.

Stay vigilant and don’t be afraid to revise your thinking as new information comes in.